Monday, April 4, 2011
Likelihood
How likely are each of the different possible outcomes you discussed for the last blog question? This doesn't have to be an actual measurement or arbitrary percentage; you can discuss the outcomes' likelihoods in relation to each other (ex:a is more likely than b but less likely than c) or just in general (ex: b is possible, but not likely because...).
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After analyzing the various aspects of my topic, the Healthcare Reform laws that might be considered unconstitutional at the Supreme Court level, I ran my data through the Prince system. Just by observation, it seems more probable that the law will be repealed than upheld if passed through the Supreme Court. My data findings using the Prince System were pretty interesting, though.
ReplyDeleteMy findings show that the probable outcome is that the law might actually be upheld in the first round of voting by the Supreme Court Justices. It seems as though there is about equal probability of the law being upheld or repealed in this first round where no one influences the others, a kind of blind vote. However, because of the lower salience of certain individuals and a greater power of Chief Justice Roberts and other Justices with longer service time, the Prince System shows there to be a 71% probability that in the final round of voting, the Patient Care and Affordable Care Act will be repealed.
Mitch Daniels > Mike Huckabee > Tim Pawlenty > Haley Barbour > Mitt Romney > Sarah Palin > Newt Gingrich
ReplyDeleteIn answer to the question about method... yeah, it's mostly intuition, with a couple of strategic factors thrown into the mix (I think Mitch Daniels will round out his solid fiscal credentials with a value-voters nomination from Rep. Mike Pence, for instance)... but a lot of it is intuition, e.g. Tim Pawlenty looks good on paper but comes across as a total milquetoast, etc. Besides, this sort of question isn't particularly suited to either a Prince analysis or a Bueno De Mesquita type analysis, insofar as all the actors want the same thing, with the same salience, and with constantly fluctuating levels of power. It's kind of the *point* of this paper to show that there's value to predictive intuition, particularly in areas where game-theoretic analyses are handicapped.
After studying various news resources and currency reports, I put together reasonably informed (but intuitively guided) preference orders for each actor. These preference orders were under the assumptions that the yuan currency is not allowed to "float" and that the major E.U. members keep the euro as their currency. I then compared the preferences of all the actors within a voting matrix.
ReplyDeleteOut of the 15 possible currency elections: the euro won 5, the SDR won 4, the dollar won 3, the pound won 2, the yen won 1, and the yuan won 0.
This means that a transition to the use of more euros is preferred to the status quo (represented by the dollar) and more likely than the SDR. This indicates that the euro (given the assumptions) probably will strengthen as a rival reserve currency.
The most likely scenario is that JK Rowling will write a companion rather than another novel. This is more likely because of time. It won't take as long to for the publishers or the author. The next most likely scenario is a series based on another character or "filling in the blanks" with existing characters. This isn't very likely to happen right now because Rowling seems to be enjoying the break she has after finishing the Harry Potter series back in 2009.
ReplyDeleteMost likely is:
ReplyDeleteNo healthcare bills make it through either house of Congress.
Followed by :
The healthcare bill makes it only through the Senate, where Democrats still hold a majority.
And then:
A healthcare bill passes successfully through both houses and the President signs it into law
Second least likely is:
The bill makes in through the House of Representatives but is defeated in the Senate.
And least likely is:
The bill passes through both houses of Congress and is vetoed by President Obama. At this point either
a. The bills dies
or b. Both houses vote 2/3 support for the bill to overturn the veto
There are only three possibilities. The first is that the dominican constitution will be changed to not discriminate against haitian-dominicans. The second is that it will not change, and the status quo will remain at least for now. The third outcome could be a harsher implementation or laws. The most likely will be the status quo, the second likely is that it will get worse and the least likely is that it will change. Status quo is what they want and to make the situation worse would only make them more international enemies, and to change it completely would defeat the purpose of having the law in the first place.
ReplyDeleteAfter looking at the two outcomes and the different ways in which they may be reached it seems most likely that the bill will be passed. This is due to the strong support by the governor, as well as to the support by Republican members of the House and the Senate. Although Democrats hold the majority in both chambers, the division that Democrats feel over the death penalty may lead some to side with the Republicans, making the majority vote go towards the reinstatement of the bill.
ReplyDeleteI would say that in terms of likelihoods, Mitt Romney has the best chance of becoming the GOP candidate in 2012. But regardless of this fact, Obama's likelihood of winning against any candidate the GOP decides to nominate is very great. He has incumbency advantage, which comes with support, name recognition, and greater resources/funding at his disposal.
ReplyDeleteIt seems that the likelihoods of each situation are as follows. The most likely situation as of now seems like a change in policy. The other options of continued illegality or alternate methods seem equally probable.
ReplyDeleteAfter reading through many articles on the upcoming Egyptian election, it seems more likely that Egypt will be able to form a democracy. The strongest of all the actors, the military, has so far kept up with the demands of the revolutionaries to the best of their ability. With the power of the military on their side, the chance for the democracy that the Revolution Youth Coalition seems highly probable.
ReplyDeleteIt is unlikely that either the DoJ or Gov Brewer would chose to back down on this case - both have been very stubborn on this issue. Gov Brewer has high support in her state for SB 1070, and so it will not negatively effect her campaign for reelection in 2012. For Obama, this has likely become a nearly-moot issue, considering the economy and the Middle East meltdown.
ReplyDeleteI doubt that the Supreme Court would not hear this case, given the huge media coverage and wide public outcry - both in support and against it.
My Prince Chart prediction puts the likelyhood of the Supreme Court upholding SB 1070 over them striking it down.