Prediction Presentation Schedule

Tuesday:
Sam
Megan
Matthew
Troy
Clayton
Amanda W
Levi
Christine

Thursday:
Cameron
Amanda F
Zach
Gerald
Hannah
Amber
Noah

Prediction

This is the final blog question!

What is your prediction?

Time

When do you expect your situation's outcome to occur?

Or, in less awkward phrasing: when will you know if your prediction is correct?

Likelihood

How likely are each of the different possible outcomes you discussed for the last blog question? This doesn't have to be an actual measurement or arbitrary percentage; you can discuss the outcomes' likelihoods in relation to each other (ex:a is more likely than b but less likely than c) or just in general (ex: b is possible, but not likely because...).

Outcomes

What possible outcomes are there? This is all of the outcomes (within reason, I mean), not just the one you predict will occur.

Tools

How will you form your prediction?

This project doesn't have a restriction on your prediction method, so don't feel like you have to go through your notes and pick something at random. Even intuition counts as a tool; we just want to know how you will approach forming a prediction based on the information you've gathered on your situation.

Choices

What options are available to your actors? How can they act to influence events?

Power

How do the actors relate to one another in power? Are they similar? Is one actor significantly more powerful than another? Do they have different kinds of power within the situation?

(Sorry this is late!)

Conservation of Personal Problems

Discuss "the law of conservation of personal problems" that is part of the dialogue between Yugo and Dors in Forward the Foundation, (pp. 268-274, esp. pp. 272-3).

The tie-in to physics implies the following: For a fixed group of people, the sum total of all conflict between and among all the group members is constant over time. Adding, subtracting, or changing individuals *is* expected to change the total conflict of the group. But keeping the group a "closed system" somehow implies conservation of personal problems.

Motivation

What motivates each of your actors? What do they want (in relation to your issue space and each other), and how much do they want it?

Actors

Who are the people (actors) involved in the situation you are forming a prediction for?

(Also, if you ever have questions about the blog questions--like they're vague or something--feel free to email me or ask about it during class.)

Who Hates the Google Blogs Procedure?

I do.

Prediction Topic

This is, as you may have noticed, the first blog post. Each week, I will make a post in the form of a question about the information in what will become your prediction paper. You can all leave your answers for each question as comments to the original post asking it. If something isn't working, let me know as soon as possible. That way you can still get credit even if you can't seem to post anything.

Question number one:

What is the situation you have chosen to form a prediction for?