How will you form your prediction?
This project doesn't have a restriction on your prediction method, so don't feel like you have to go through your notes and pick something at random. Even intuition counts as a tool; we just want to know how you will approach forming a prediction based on the information you've gathered on your situation.
I'm in the process of surfing forums to find out what people are saying about the idea of a new book. I've also been looking at a lot of statistics about how successful the existing books and films have been, and looking at interviews with Rowling to see what sort of reaction she is having. After I get enough information to have a good idea about what people want, I should be able to figure out what is most likely to be written.
ReplyDeleteI've been reading news articles, Congressional CRS reports,and reading statements released by members of Congress and the President to help me. Also, intuition will play a role in determining my prediction, as well as (possibly) the Prince worksheet.
ReplyDeleteI'm actually making use of the Prince System to do my prediction. During the other drafts of my paper, I gathered a lot of information from the internet, including information about the Healthcare Reform and different view points, as well as information about each one of the Supreme Court Justices. Using this information, I was able to look at past decisions and votes of each Supreme Court Justice, how willing they were to change their opinion on a matter, and the personal viewpoints and statements they have made that might influence their position on the matter.
ReplyDeleteWith this information, I have quantified the position, power, and salience of each of the Supreme Court Justices with respect to the Healthcare reform law passed last year. Since I love mathematics, I decided to calculate a probability that the law would either be repealed or upheld by the Supreme Court.
I've been researching articles on the different actors. I will most likely be using a lot of intuition from the knowledge that I have so far gained to determine the issue position, power, and priority to place into the Prince System.
ReplyDeleteI think I want to assign definite definitions to each power my actors have in the situation on some scale in order to approach how the situation will resolve. I think it would be interesting to use the Prince method as my main formula for analysis. The results would be interesting in their comparison to what we've been discussing in class as far as BDM's predictions and methods as well as Game Theory in general. I may result to pure intuition in the end, but I hope that I can challenge myself not only to approach my situation in a fashion I might not have used before but also to think in a new fashion as well. Lastly, I think it will be fun to place faith in a formula when contemplating these kinds of issues, and depending on how my results go, it potentially be very useful to me in the future.
ReplyDeleteI am using financial news articles and central bank reports to intuitively establish a currency preference order for each nation. Then I will be using a game theory model that maps out the situation in the form of an "election" to find out if any single currency can be compromised upon by all the actors. The voting power of each actor will be weighted to their IMF quota votes and their GDP. This will account for the different motivations and levels of power for each actor. I'm hoping that this method will be able to clearly simulate the situation.
ReplyDeleteI've been keeping up with GOP potential nominees. I think my main tool will definitely be intuition though. Educated guessing?
ReplyDeleteI will use the “Prince System” to make my prediction. The Prince System is a method for forecasting the statistical likelihood that a specific decision will be made when an individual or group has a significant influence. In a Prince System one must determine five pieces of information to make a forecast; identify the decision, identify the players, determine the issue position of each player, determine the power of each player and determine importance (priority) the decision outcome is to each player. After gathering the proper inputs you can simply plug them into the Prince System and begin making predictions. (Coplin)
ReplyDeleteMy prediction will probably come from a mixture of intuition and possibly a try at the Prince method. Whether or not I use the Prince method will depend on if I can find or determine reasonable values for each of the necessary parties.
ReplyDeleteI am combining intuition with the results of past legislative sessions and the current stances of each political party. Since most Republicans are pro capital punishment that makes guessing their actions easy, but because Democrats are divided on the issue looking at current polls and past results gives me a better idea of what to expect.
ReplyDeleteI am going to use the prince chart because it seems the easiest qualitative method I can implement for my prediction. The values for the position, power, and priority will be rather arbitrary. But mostly based on my qualitative analysis of the issue and each actor.
ReplyDeleteI've been reading news articles and opinion papers on the Court Justices, as well as summaries of their previous voting records. It comes down a bit to intuition, but I am also using the Prince Method chart. The intuition is based primarily on who some of the 'unknown' Supreme Court Justices will vote.
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