This is, as you may have noticed, the first blog post. Each week, I will make a post in the form of a question about the information in what will become your prediction paper. You can all leave your answers for each question as comments to the original post asking it. If something isn't working, let me know as soon as possible. That way you can still get credit even if you can't seem to post anything.
Question number one:
What is the situation you have chosen to form a prediction for?
Hey everyone!
ReplyDeleteLike I was saying in class, my prediction topic is the healthcare reform law know as "The Patient Protection and Affordable Care Act," H.R. 3590 (PPAC).
The Democratic Party made the following statement when President Obama signed the bill: “The Patient Protection and Affordable Care Act will ensure that all Americans have access to quality, affordable health care and will create the transformation within the health care system necessary to contain costs." However, not everyone is so optimistic. Many states, especially ones with a high per capita of republicans, have already started passing laws against these measures, noting questionable details such as imposing a fine on the uninsured, huge expenditures, and possible job cuts from healthcare related positions, coining the term “Obamacare” to refer to the PPAC.
I will be looking at a particular bill that was recently submitted in Texas, House Bill HB 297, in which it was declared that the PPAC is a violation of the tenth amendment (which defines the scope of the federal government’s power) and that it “interferes with the right of the people of this state to regulate health care as they determine is appropriate.”
I chose this particular topic because I work in the healthcare profession as a licensed practical nurse (LPN), and I am studying in order to enter medical school. This is something that will quite definitely affect me in the future.
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ReplyDeleteAs I have mentioned in class my prediction topic will mot likely be about the appeal by the Obama administration of the ban on the use of Embryonic stem cells in research.
ReplyDeletePreviously, this field of study has been declared unethical because of the necessity to kill the embryo to harvest the stem cells. The Obama administration however, granted research funding to several companies that were conducting this type of research. After the funding was granted, a lawsuit was formed suing them for providing this kind of funding. The Obama administration is now appealing, claiming that the funding that was given cannot be repealed for several reasons. One of their biggest issues is that this kind of research could lead to big advancements in the field of medicine for treating very harmful diseases. Also, they are claiming that it would be irresponsible to take the funding away at this point in time. I have not been able to find a date for when the appeal will reach the court, so I am assuming that means I will have enough time to predict the outcome of the suit.
My prediction topic is about the possible reinstatement of the death penalty in New Mexico. Instead of looking at whether it will be reinstated this legislative session, I am going to predict whether or not it will occur during the course of Susanna Martinez’s term as governor. In order to do this I am also going to look at the midterm elections and try to predict whether there will be a Republican majority or a Democratic one. However, this prediction will not be as detailed as the overall prediction, and instead will serve to aid me in making my prediction. I find this topic to be interesting because it is something that could (potentially) affect everyone who lives in the state. It's also interesting because the death penalty was abolished very recently (in 2009) under Bill Richardson's governorship and only two years later may be reinstated.
ReplyDeleteTowards the end of the State of the Union speech President Obama stated “this July, we will begin to bring our troops home.” This is an interesting statement because in past speeches the President has stated that he would start bringing troops home in July 2011, but he always mentioned that this withdrawal date was dependent on “conditions on the ground.” Yet in the State of the Union the withdrawal from Afghanistan was mentioned without the usual “conditions on the ground” statement.
ReplyDeleteIn my prediction paper I would like to look into the future and analyze whether we will begin moving troops out of Afghanistan in July 2011. I will take into account many variables including the President dropping his “conditions on the ground” mantra as well as the rate at which this troop withdrawal will occur, if it occurs at all. I will also attempt to look at what effect a troop withdrawal will have concerning conditions in Afghanistan as well as here in the U.S. (primarily dealing with the possible problems presented by thousands of war weary vets being reintegrated into our society.
My prediction topic will most likely be the following:
ReplyDeleteA few months ago, author JK Rowling announced that she had come up with the extra material to write an additional three Harry Potter novels. In an interview with Oprah she stated, “I’m not going to say I won’t. I don’t think I will … I feel I am done, but you never know.” This has been met with both fan backlash and excitement. I would like to explore the factors that would lead to her either deciding to write the novels or staying with the existing seven books. This would include looking into how much money the novels would likely bring her, publication issues, and also whether it would be worth her time and effort considering her already substantial wealth.
I am going to try to predict the 2012 GOP presidential nominee. I'll have to research potential candidates, potential strategies, etc. plus look at some initial polling data (though I won't track polling data for long, cuz that seems contrary to the spirit of the project. Hopefully (given the importance of early primaries and caucuses as winnowers of the field) I'll be able to focus largely on the interplay between a few projected contenders, thus keeping the scope of the project manageable.
ReplyDeleteSo my prediction topic was on the drug war in Juarez Mexico. I am interested in identifying all primary players, their motivations, and their strategies. I think that it will be interesting to see how this current event compares to the prisoner's dilemma we discussed in class. What I was planning on actually predicting was when a major decline in the violence might occur and the reasons behind the decline.
ReplyDeleteI'm going to try and predict whether or not the 112th congress will pass a new piece of healthcare legislation. Americans haven't been very receptive to "Obamacare" and the House of Representatives went as far as to vote to repeal it, though the vote failed in the Senate. I guess I'm just curious if congress will feel pressured enough to pass new legislation or will come up with something that's actually capable of making a significant change that the public will accept.
ReplyDeleteThere has been talk on the international stage about changing the world reserve currency from the dollar to something else. I wanted to examine the coalitions that would likely form in favor of various reserve-currency candidates (Euro, Yen, Pound, Special drawing rights, or possibly the yuan). I wanted to map this out in order to see if a dramatic change would likely occur or if the status quo would be maintained. I am also interested in examining whether or not China will ever allow the yuan to "float" on the currency exchange and how this would effect its probability of becoming a reserve currency. I chose this topic because I thought it would give insight about where the international economy was heading.
ReplyDeleteArizona's new immigration enforcement law, passed last April, caused a wave of controversy across the nation. In July, the DOJ filed a lawsuit against Arizona. It is expected to go all the way to the Supreme Court within the next year-and-a-half or so. I want to predict the outcome of the Supreme Court decision..
ReplyDeleteWe talked a little bit about my prediction topic in class on Tuesday. My topic deals with the 2011 presidential elections in Egypt, and how the current protests could affect it. Currently, many Egyptians are against the government wanting the incumbent president, Hosni Mubarak, to resign from office. If he were to resign, the newly appointed Vice President would act on his behalf for 60 days, until a different election were to occur. However, my prediction is based on him staying in office until the elections in September. My prediction will be based upon coalitions of current prominent groups in Egypt. In Egypt, the citizens are split: for and against the government. These two side are also split up into whether one stands for Democracy or Theocracy. Many different actors will effect the outcome of this election. The outcome with the highest probability is that a political party that is pro-government will attempt to gain votes by appealing to some of the wants of those who demand change. I think it will be interesting to see how these huge protests can affect the government of Egypt.
ReplyDeleteOkay so this is my topic, I know a lot about the topic but I'm not sure the direction I want to lead into it, immigration is not the only issue of the constitution, if anyone wants to know more I can post extra info on it:
ReplyDeleteOn 26 January 2010 a new Constitution was created and passed in the Dominican Republic it was spearheaded under the President Leonel Fernandez and an influential politician of the opposing party Miguel Vargas. The Constitution is the most conservative yet and has brought the international human rights organization and advocates to a gasp over it. One of the many controversial topics is the immigration and naturalization. The Constitution states that nationality will be based on ius solis (born in the country) and ius sanguinis (of blood decent). Article 18 of the Constitution, which establishes the status of citizens, also restricts citizenship from those born of legally and illegally residing immigrants to the Dominican Republic. This leaves Haitians born on the Dominican side without nationality and a Diaspora of non-Dominican descendent Dominicans without Dominican citizenship. This clause in the article clearly shows the prejudice and racism of the Dominican people and government. But it came just before the earthquake and several international organizations like Amnesty International and Human Rights advocates of the world are fighting and speaking out against some abuses of the Constitution. I would like to predict the probability or possibility that the Dominican Republic will change or not change this clause of the constitution especially since there is an article in the Constitution that allows changes to be made to it.
I would like to do my prediction paper on a topic concerning the 2012 presidential elections. We already know that Barack Obama will be the Democratic candidate, but we do not know who will be running against him. I do not want to make a prediction about who that person will be, but rather, I would like to predict whether Barack Obama can retain his position regardless of who the Republican Party nominates.
ReplyDeleteIn what was a surprise to almost everyone, Senator Jeff Bingaman stated last Friday that he would not be seeking reelection in the 2012 Senate race. Speculation is already swirling as to who each party will put up as a candidate. For my paper I would like to predict who the candidates will be from each party and who will ultimately win the election.
ReplyDelete